Expected Steel Demand In The Three Major Domestic Industries

Infrastructure investment has risen, real estate demand is full of resilience, and the manufacturing industry has entered a high economic cycle. Next year, steel demand will remain high. At the same time, because the demand for flat products is relatively better than that for long products, steel mills have little motivation to produce rebar, and the supply of rebar remains neutral. Therefore, in the peak demand season of the first half of next year, rebar prices still have room to rise. Infrastructure investment is rising, real estate demand is full of resilience, and the superimposed manufacturing industry is ushering in a high business cycle. Next year, steel demand will remain high.


In terms of infrastructure, the data for infrastructure investment in November exceeded expectations, mainly because budgetary funds, urban investment bonds, and non-standard investment in infrastructure increased significantly. In the medium and long term, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations are developing at a high speed. In addition, the new round of western development has entered a period of policy regulation. In the future, there is huge room for the development of large-scale infrastructure in the country. Infrastructure construction from January to October Cumulative investment (excluding electricity) rose to 0.70% year-on-year.


In terms of real estate, although the strict control of real estate policies has increased, the demand for real estate has remained resilient for a long time. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion in the market about the short-term negative impact of the real estate "three red lines" policy on the market, mainly in the acquisition of land and the new construction phase, but it will also prompt real estate companies to accelerate the sales of existing inventory, including speeding up construction and completion schedule. After real estate destocking and deleveraging, the industry tends to develop in a flat cycle, and demand resilience will continue for a long time. From January to October this year, the cumulative value of commercial housing sales area has rebounded to 1.3 billion square meters, reaching a high level in the past three years.


As for the manufacturing industry, the current high economic cycle is ushering in and companies are motivated to replenish inventory. The domestic economy continues to recover, the revenues and profits of industrial enterprises continue to rise, the midstream and downstream demand of the manufacturing industry is considerable, and the entire inventory cycle is developing in a positive direction. Among them, due to the continuous development of new energy vehicles in the automobile industry chain, the production and sales conditions have maintained a good situation. In October, automobile production increased by 11.10% year-on-year. White goods benefited from the marginal increase in overseas exports and the replacement cycle, and will continue to maintain high growth. In October, the output of household refrigerators and household washing machines increased by 25.80% and 10.20% year-on-year respectively.