A moderate but continued growth, these are the words the World Steel Association uses to define the future for the global steel demand.
On October 16, the Association released its October 2017 Short Range Outlook (SRO). According to the forecasts, global steel demand will reach 1,622.1 Mt in 2017. In 2018, it will reach 1,648.1 Mt. Excluding China, there will be an increase of 2.6% in 2017 and of 3.0% in 2018.
The performances are better than expected for both developed and developing economies, although the MENA region and Turkey have been an exception.
“The risks to the global economy that we referred to in our previous outlook, such as rising populism/protectionism, US policy shifts, EU election uncertainties and China deceleration have to some extent abated,” commented Mr T.V. Narendran, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee. “We now see the best balance of risks since the 2008 economic crisis.”
Tensions in the Korean peninsula, China’s debt problem and rising protectionism in many locations are still risk factors.
Though investment sentiments are improving in many countries, the worldsteel Economics Committee at its most recent meeting in Amsterdam agreed that the current momentum is driven mostly by cyclical rather than structural factors.