Recently, the downstream demand in the steel market has experienced a seasonal decline, and the spot price of rebar has begun to fall. However, due to the large basis of the rebar 2101 contract, the rebar 2101 contract is protected by the high basis and there is limited room for downward adjustment.
According to seasonality, after December, the regular shutdown of blast furnaces in steel mills will increase, so in the future, rebar will enter a pattern of weak supply and demand. At present, it is entering the peak period of north material southward, but the shipment volume is lower than market expectations.
Due to the relatively good demand for rebar in Beijing and Tianjin at this stage, it has played a role in diverting the northeast steel products from the south, which caused the Northeast rebar shipments to the south from November to December to be lower than the same period last year. Entering December, the planned delivery volume of rebar north steel will increase seasonally, while the volume of East China will shrink slightly year-on-year. In general, the contradiction between supply and demand of rebar is not obvious in the short term.